AFC Analytical Power Rankings: A Division in Turmoil as Week 10 Approaches

As we dive deeper into the second half of the NFL season, it’s evident that the AFC is facing a significant shake-up, with only seven teams maintaining winning records. The narrative that began the year with the Buffalo Bills being in rebuild mode has drastically shifted, leaving many analysts and fans surprised. While some touted the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets as potential division champions, their combined five wins at the ninth week of the season paint a different story.

The disparity between the conferences is becoming increasingly noticeable. In comparison to the NFC’s ten teams holding .500 or better records, the AFC struggles to boast the same competitiveness. At the forefront of this analysis sits the Detroit Lions, dominating NFL rankings with clarity. However, let’s focus our attention on the current state of the AFC as we navigate through the latest power rankings derived from a combination of nine meticulous metrics—factors such as Offensive DVOA, Defensive EPA, and Turnover Differential Average informing our overall assessment.

The Rankings

16. New England Patriots (2-7)

The Patriots faced yet another frustrating week, allowing the Titans to secure their much-needed second win of the season. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye shows promise, hinting at a brighter future, although the present remains bleak as the team ranks last in offensive and defensive DVOA.

Patriots struggling this season

15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

Following a tough loss to the Bengals, the Raiders have dropped their seventh game this year. Notably, their turnover differential remains the worst in the league. The trade deadline’s passing without movement from the Raiders suggests they are resigned to a full-blown rebuilding process.

14. Cleveland Browns (2-7)

Despite surviving trade rumors involving defensive star Myles Garrett, the Browns’ offensive struggles are glaring. Ranking at the bottom in both offensive success rate and DVOA, it’s clear that adjustments are necessary if they wish to turn their season around.

13. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7)

The Jaguars have managed to snag second in this week’s rankings, yet they stand firm at the bottom of numerous statistical categories, specifically in EPA per play. A rebuild seems imminent as they look to reinforce their defense.

12. Miami Dolphins (2-6)

The Dolphins entered the season with high expectations, yet have faltered significantly. Even with Tua Tagovailoa back, they find themselves ranking poorly on both offensive and defensive metrics. Their current form raises questions about their playoff aspirations.

Dolphins fall short this season

11. Tennessee Titans (2-6)

The Titans have finally broken through to secure their second win, showcasing a resilience marked by strength in their surprisingly strong defense, ranked favorably in defensive success rates.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-5)

Despite early-season struggles, the Bengals are clawing back into playoff contention with a resurgent offense. However, defensive issues persist, signaling that they will need to address this as they aim for a spot in the postseason.

9. Indianapolis Colts (4-5)

With a quarterback switch to Joe Flacco, the Colts have been unable to revamp their offensive output. Nevertheless, their defensive line shines, allowing them to maintain a respectable ranking in defensive EPA.

8. New York Jets (3-6)

The Jets seem to be making incremental progress, snagging their third victory. However, their path back to contention remains steep, highlighting the need for sustained improvements.

7. Houston Texans (6-3)

With a solid record, the Texans are in a position of strength but urgently require their star receiver back to help elevate their current offensive rankings.

Texans looking for offensive consistency

6. Denver Broncos (5-4)

The Broncos are tied for one of the top spots in the AFC West, demonstrating marked improvement from previous seasons. Their ability to capitalize on both ends of the field has positioned them favorably.

5. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)

The Ravens are showcasing championship capabilities. Yet, their inconsistency in performance—especially in critical playoff moments—remains a concern.

4. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)

The Chargers are effectively second in their division, exceeding expectations through resilience despite facing numerous injuries.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)

Even as the undefeated Chiefs top the league, discussions persist regarding their overall ranking, reflecting on recent performances and playoff concerns.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

The Steelers’ recent acquisitions are paying off. With enhancing leadership at quarterback, they’ve risen prominently in the rankings this season.

1. Buffalo Bills (7-2)

Still maintaining a dominant position, the Bills haven’t loosened their grip on the top spot for weeks. Nevertheless, their defensive inconsistencies could prove crucial as the season progresses.

Bills remain strong contenders in the division

As the NFL season progresses, the dynamics within the AFC are both compelling and tumultuous. With playoff fever brewing, fans and teams alike will be glued to the unfolding drama that characterizes this unique season. Stay tuned for more insights as the action heats up!

Explore more about the Bills and their journey this season on SI: Buffalo Bills News.